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Ashland Stakes (G1) Keeneland

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles A Par OPI: 94
Update Finalized
May 17, 2026

Official Field Analysis: Ashland Stakes (G1)

Post: 5:16 PM ET

The Ashland dynamic centers on Zany, whose undefeated record and 91 speed figure make her the analytical co-favorite. However, the FPPS model identifies Percy's Bar (93.1 OPI) as a major threat; she is the only runner to satisfy our Track and Distance hard filters with proven Grade I form at Keeneland. We are logging a score shift for French Friction, who brings elite early speed but faces a significant hurdle as a "1st at route" starter. Nycon (85.2 OPI) offers exotic value with a Competitive Grade of 86.0, suggesting she can hit the board if the tactical pressers engage in a mid-race duel. Hollybygolly and Omaha Bay currently fail our speed par, requiring a significant OPI surge to compete with the top trio.

Sponsored Analysis
High-Value OPI Intelligence:

A premier 100-point Kentucky Oaks prep at 1 1/16 miles. Our OPI identifies the fillies with the local efficiency to conquer the Keeneland stretch.

Review the full Pro Betting Sheet analysis below for final Hard Filter results.

OPI Pedigree Deep-Dive

The two-turn transition at Keeneland is the ultimate litmus test. Our OPI Pedigree Index highlights Zany (9.5 Index) and Percy's Bar (9.4 Index) as the stamina aristocrats. Conversely, sprint-centric types like French Friction (8.9 Index) must prove their Recent Speed Figure (94) can endure the 8.5-furlong stamina requirements inherent in this Grade I field.

Top OPI Score
2 Percys Bar
OPI Score 93.1
Comp. Grade 96
Recent Speed 91
Lifetime Track & Distance Filter Result
Track & Distance focus (Lifetime KEE + 8.5f efficiency).

Value Audit

Our Expert Perspective uses a 50/30/20 weighting to separate true value from public hype.

OPI Confidence: High
  • Pedigree Index20%
Analysis calibrated for: Fair Surface
1
Nycon
ML: 8/1
stalker
RISKY OVERLAY
2
Percys Bar
ML: 3/1
stalker
UNDERLAY
3
Zany
ML: 2/1
stalker
UNDERLAY
4
French Friction
ML: 4/1
speed
FAIR VALUE
5
Omaha Bay
ML: 12/1
speed
RISKY OVERLAY
6
Hollybygolly
ML: 15/1
presser
RISKY OVERLAY
7
Star Actress
ML: 10/1
stalker
RISKY OVERLAY
WEATHER & TRACK ALERT: Forecast for Preakness Stakes Weekend is SUNNY & FAST. OPI Recent Speed Figures (50% weight) are prioritized for today's Fast track conditions.
Track Intelligence Engine
Data Sync: Projected Model: No Guarantee of Results
Post Horse OPI Pedigree Comp Grade Recent Speed OPI Score Status
1 Nycon 8/1 8.2 86 86 85.2 PAPER
2 Percys Bar 3/1 9.4 96 91 93.1 REAL WINNER
3 Zany 2/1 9.5 95 91 93.0 REAL WINNER
4 French Friction 4/1 8.9 94 94 93.0 REAL WINNER
5 Omaha Bay 12/1 7.8 85 81 81.6 PAPER
6 Hollybygolly 15/1 7.6 83 79 79.6 PAPER
7 Star Actress 10/1 8.4 84 85 84.5 PAPER

OPI Watchlist: 2026 Ashland Stakes

Percy's Bar (#2)

Style: Stalker

A
OPI Scout: Top-tier "Real Winner" (93.1 OPI). Only contender meeting the "Hard Filter" for Track/Distance (2 1-1-0 at KEE). Sharp 4f bullet (:47.2) on March 24.
Zany (#3)

Style: Stalker

A
OPI Scout: Elite OPI Score (93.0). Undefeated American Pharoah filly; boasts a 91 Recent Speed Figure earned at the distance.
French Friction (#4)

Style: Speed

A-
OPI Scout: Hits "Real Winner" threshold (93.0) via field-high Recent Speed Figure (94). Must now answer the "stamina ceiling" question in her first attempt at a route.
The "Hard Filter" Forecast

Hard Filter Alert: Omaha Bay and Hollybygolly are designated "Paper Contenders" due to Recent Speed Figures failing to meet the Grade I par. Percy's Bar, Zany, and French Friction remain the primary "Real Winners" with proven OPI efficiency.

Refresh Analysis →

OPI Strategic Framework

The Efficiency Play

Focus on the Top OPI Qualifier and the Heavyweight in a vertical structure.

Positive Regression

Build around the "Real Winner" filter horses while explicitly fading the Public Trap.

Kelly Criterion: Value Calculator

Select a contender from your Pro Betting Sheet to see the recommended unit stake.

Recommended Stake $0.00

Strategy: Quarter-Kelly

Risk-adjusted for long-term growth.

Disclaimer: The Overall Performance Index (OPI) and Pro Betting Sheet data are for educational purposes. All wagering responsibilities rest with the user. 1-800-GAMBLER.

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