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Free PPs, Odds, Analysis of the Rebel Stakes 2021

Churchill Downs returns post COVID-19 with Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn

If the 2021 Kentucky Derby was going to run this Saturday instead of the Rebel at Oaklawn, the two Bob Baffert entries for the G2 Rebel Stakes, Concert Tour and Hozier, would not be part of the 2021 Kentucky Derby field.

And the same would be true for the two Asmussen entries, Big Lake and Super Stock, who are also on the outside looking in.

Keepmeinmind makes his 3 year old debut in the Rebel

In fact, of the eight horses who will go postward in the Rebel, only Keepmeinmind and Get Her Number, currently 12th and 19th, with 18 and 10 points respectively, would be able to enter the starting gate for Kentucky Derby 147.

The field of 8 for the 2021 Rebel Stakes (G2) was drawn on Tuesday. And while the morning line odds have not been posted, it’s a good bet we’ll see Caddo River open as a lukewarm favorite in a modest field of talent.

Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes is the only Kentucky Derby points prep this weekend.

G2 Rebel Stakes Field and Analysis

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $400,000
Points: 50-20-10-5

In post position order, here’s a quick rundown of the field for the 2021 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on Saturday.

1 Caddo River – Winner of the Smarty Jones by 10, sire Hard Spun couldn’t quite get the distance in the 2007 Kentucky Derby finishing a tiring 2nd to Street Sense, and outlasting Curlin. 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place gets him enough points to land in the Top 20. 

2 Big Lake – American Pharoah sired, winner of his last two at Fair Grounds going two turns with Lasix. Started career at Churchill showing early foot in two 7 furlong sprints but tired without Lasix. Plenty to read into the medication angle and making his first start against proven graded stakes competition. 

3 Hozier – One of two in here for Baffert. Last out MSW winner at Santa Anita is by American Pharoah’s sire, Pioneer of the Nile. Finished 14 behind stablemate Concert Tour two back at first asking. Has a nice bullet move a few days ago and expect good effort and a possible piece.

4 Get Her Number – Won the G1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita to end 2020. That race was key to Spielberg’s win in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Currently 19th with 10 points, can’t see how he gets many more in here.

5 Twilight Blue – Started career at Ellis on turf and was “done early.” Returned to take a 6 furlong sprint at Churchill at long odds. His second place finish behind Mandaloun going 7 next out looked like the start of something for him. Lasix administered in his last three probably helped him get back on track to win a 1 1 /6 miles allowance here LTO. But have to question him at this level, without Lasix.

6 Keepmeinmind – Winner of the KYJC in his last start, makes his long awaited return to the races following a tough 2 year old campaign that resulted in two close efforts behind Essential Quality. He’ll need some help from some of the speedier ones to keep Caddo River from getting away with it all. But 1st or 2nd is expected. CHOICE.

7 Concert Tour – Lasix. No Lasix. He’s won both starts for Baffert, either way. Last out winner of the San Vicente, he beat stablemate Freedom Fighter who was sent to the Big Apple to save Gotham, only to be defeated by $100 horse, Weyburn. This game is all about who beat who and “key” race angles. Eliminate Baffert at the risk of peril. But can’t pick him for the top spot in here.

Rebel Stakes PPs See Bob Baffert.

7 Super Stock – It’s rare when Asmussen has one that he thinks could be somebody but only has 1 win in six starts. Won the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity at Lone Star last August but has struggled to reach higher than the second and third spots on the tote board in last three. Unless none of the other seven show up, this will probably be his final stop on the Derby trail.

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